A $3.2 million 'bitcoin butterfly' option trade bets on $95,000 by the end of October
Traders placed a large long-call butterfly options position that profits if bitcoin is near $95,000 at the Oct. 30 expiry. The structured trade—netting an upfront cost of about $3.17 million—consists of calls at the $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000 strikes and implies a bet that BTC will move from roughly $85,000 toward $95,000 over the next four weeks.
Why It Matters
A single multi-million-dollar butterfly and rising demand for calls signal increased bullish positioning in the options market, which can amplify directional bets and volatility as expiry approaches. Market indicators cited in the report show bitcoin has cleared several long-term moving averages and key resistance levels, suggesting technical momentum behind the trade.
Key Facts
- trade type: long call butterfly
- expiry: Oct. 30, 2026
- strikes involved: $90,000 / $95,000 / $100,000
- structure per block: 1,000 long $90K calls; 2,000 short $95K calls; 1,000 long $100K calls
- blocks executed: 5
A notable options trade in the past 24 hours positioned for bitcoin to reach about $95,000 by the end of October. The strategy was a long call butterfly with Oct. 30 expiry calls at $90,000 and $100,000 bought while twice as many $95,000 calls were sold. According to Laevitas data, the trade moved through liquidity network Paradigm in five blocks, each containing the same 1,000/2,000/1,000 call arrangement.
The combined position required an upfront outlay of roughly $3.17 million. A long call butterfly delivers its largest payoff if the underlying settles near the middle strike at expiry—in this case $95,000—producing positive gross payoff between $90,000 and $100,000. If bitcoin finishes outside that range, the payoff is effectively zero and the initial premium paid is the trader’s loss.
Interpreting the trade, market observers note it implies a view of bitcoin rising from around $85,000 to near $95,000 over the next four weeks. That assessment aligns with price-action commentary in the piece pointing out little historical resistance between roughly $85,000 and $98,000 on bitcoin’s daily chart, meaning momentum could carry prices toward the January high above $98,000.
The butterfly came alongside other signs of growing bullish demand for upside exposure. Short-term risk reversals moved in favor of calls during the recent push to about $85,000, according to a note from Laser Digital shared with CoinDesk, and options markets are pricing elevated one-standard-deviation moves across major tokens through Sept. 27: 8.9% for XRP, 8.0% for SOL, 6.9% for ether and 5.0% for bitcoin. Onchain analytics firm Glassnode added that BTC has reclaimed its long-term moving averages and closed a candle above the May high, marking another bullish breakout.
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