A diesel export ban would guarantee higher prices

Heritage Foundation analysts warn that banning diesel exports would not solve high pump prices and could worsen them over time by undermining refining economics. They argue that cutting off access to foreign buyers would restrict where existing U.S. barrels can go rather than creating extra supply, and that sales in global markets already determine diesel prices. The piece highlights recent political momentum for an export ban, noting that Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he is “open to considering” the idea and citing comments from Sen. John Hoeven and Rep. Tim Burchett. The authors acknowledge the political appeal: isolating the U.S. from exports could depress domestic pump prices briefly, a tempting short-term fix ahead of elections. But the authors contend the longer-term effects would be contraction in refinery output and investment. They point to data showing refiners were processing 17.6 million barrels per day at 97.8% of capacity in the week ending Sept. 4, and that U.S. refineries produced 5.2 million barrels per day of distillate fuels in June. Their argument is that if margins fall because barrels cannot be sold abroad, refiners will reduce runs, producing less diesel, gasoline and jet fuel for the domestic market. The commentary invokes history to support that view, recalling the four-decade U.S. ban on most crude exports and the market response after Congress repealed that ban in 2015: domestic crude production rose from just over 9 million barrels per day in 2015 to nearly 14 million per day in 2026, which the authors say strengthened U.S. energy production and security. They conclude that increasing supply through permitting reform, changes to fuel mandates, and protecting global infrastructure would better address high diesel prices than new export restrictions.