AfD is rising, but it can still be stopped

The AfD's commanding performance in Saxony-Anhalt state elections represents a watershed moment for German politics, with the party winning enough support to potentially form a government through coalition arrangements. While far from an outright majority, the result demonstrates the party's evolution from a fringe force into a genuine contender for executive power—a development that has unsettled the German political establishment and raised historical echoes of underestimated extremist movements.

Research into voter behavior reveals a complex picture beneath the headline numbers. Among AfD supporters, roughly three-quarters view the party as their sole viable option, reflecting deeply polarized voting patterns. However, approximately one-quarter remain persuadable by other parties, particularly those who do not believe the AfD excels on economic management or cost-of-living issues. This segment represents the immediate strategic target for mainstream parties seeking to reverse the far-right's momentum in upcoming elections scheduled for Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

The AfD's ascent correlates strongly with economic grievances and institutional distrust. Survey data from Saxony-Anhalt shows residents report significantly worse job prospects, educational quality, healthcare access, and social conditions compared to national averages. This disconnect between public expectations for government-delivered improvements and actual outcomes has created the political opening the AfD has successfully exploited. Meanwhile, mainstream parties face their own credibility crisis, with current Chancellor Friedrich Merz experiencing historically low approval ratings and widespread public dissatisfaction with government performance.

Mainstream parties have contributed to their own predicament by adopting immigration as a central campaign focus, seemingly hoping to reclaim voters from the AfD. However, survey data indicates the German public prioritizes economic policy by an overwhelming margin—80 percent rank it above immigration concerns. This suggests mainstream parties have misread voter priorities while simultaneously normalizing the AfD's agenda through accommodation, a dynamic that paradoxically strengthens rather than weakens the far-right party.

Reversing the trend requires fundamental strategic reorientation. Mainstream parties must credibly commit to tangible improvements in ordinary Germans' living standards, with particular emphasis on local economic opportunity and public services. This demands empowering local authorities with adequate resources and demonstrating decisive governmental capacity. Success hinges on restoring public confidence in institutions at all levels and offering a clear alternative vision grounded in economic transformation rather than immigration rhetoric. The window for corrective action remains open, but the stakes—rooted in historical experience—demand immediate and substantive response.