Attacks on Saudi oil expose Iraqi PM’s struggle to control armed factions

Drones that struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline on September 10 were traced back to launch sites in Iraq’s Maysan province, according to Iraqi security officials, an assault that threatened about 4% of global oil exports and pushed Brent crude above $108 a barrel. Baghdad says investigators identified launch traces near the Duwayrij River and that an intelligence unit recovered a launch platform as part of the inquiry.

No group has publicly claimed the attack. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella of pro‑Iranian factions that includes Kataib Hezbollah, disavowed the strike. A senior source at Iraq’s Interior Ministry told Al Jazeera he suspected a resistance 'splinter' group carried out the operation — a claim officials have not confirmed. Outside analysts note that the use of front groups or deniable cells is a frequent tactic and say the operation could have been run by the IRGC or established armed factions seeking to avoid direct attribution.

Prime Minister Ali al‑Zaidi has taken visible steps to respond under international pressure, removing the Maysan operations commander, setting up an investigative committee, closing several border crossings with Iran and deploying heavily armed troops in the province. Yet observers caution such actions risk being largely symbolic: similar incidents in July, when drones launched from Iraq struck Saudi facilities, prompted US and Saudi strikes that killed more than 20 members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, including Iranian advisers, and produced diplomatic fallout that forced Zaidi to postpone a visit to Riyadh.

The episode exposes the political and security dilemma facing Zaidi as he seeks to balance ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran. He has opened engagement with Riyadh while also receiving senior Iranian officials, and has pursued measures at home — directing banks to enforce US sanctions on Hezbollah, proposing legislation to place weapons under state control and threatening treason charges for those who refuse to disarm. But enforcement has been uneven: security raids have been rebuffed, a senior Harakat al‑Nujaba official was released by a judge shortly after arrest, and three factions — Kataib Hezbollah, Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al‑Shuhada — continue to refuse disarmament. With the US‑led coalition slated to complete its withdrawal by September 30, the pipeline strikes underscore how entrenched armed groups could constrain Baghdad’s ability to assert monopoly control over the use of force.