Bitcoin awaits Fed rate decision below $76K as analysis discounts ‘dovish surprise’ odds

Bitcoin traded below $76,000 at the open on Wednesday, remaining close to monthly lows reached earlier in the week as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to new September lows of $74,960 the day before, while spot prices approached levels not seen since Aug. 21. Market pricing strongly favored a modest Fed tightening, with tools such as the CME FedWatch Tool putting the probability of a 25-basis-point increase above 90% and some market indicators near 93%. Commentators noted that expectations at that level have historically led the Fed to act; an unchanged policy in that context would be viewed as an unusually large dovish surprise by past standards. The decision arrives amid political pressure for rate cuts from US President Donald Trump and broader central-bank moves: the ECB raised rates by 0.25% last week and the Bank of Japan is expected to follow with a 0.25% rise later in the week. On-chain analytics suggested concrete short-term support levels for Bitcoin. Glassnode reported that resting buy orders have drawn closer to market price, with nearly two-thirds of bids inside a 20% range now sitting between 1% and 10% below current levels—up from roughly half at the start of the year. That order-book depth points to $68,000 as the next immediate line of support, while the aggregated cost basis of short-term holders sits near $71,300. If those bids are exhausted, Glassnode identified an on-chain floor around $62,000–$65,000 where the heaviest block of supply below the market was last acquired. Outside monetary policy, rising oil prices are adding to inflationary pressure that policy makers must weigh. US WTI crude traded near $106.70 per barrel, its highest since early May, and previous coverage has linked higher oil prices to upward pressure on US CPI inflation. The combination of monetary policy expectations, concentrated order-book liquidity, and macro price pressures gives market participants several clear levels and variables to monitor in the near term. This article is based on reporting and on-chain analysis and is intended for informational purposes only; it does not constitute investment advice.