Bitcoin Falls Below $76,000 as Traders Cut CLARITY Act Odds Hours Before Senate Vote

Bitcoin slid to about $76,018 as traders sharply cut the odds that the Senate will advance the CLARITY Act ahead of a scheduled cloture vote, while broader crypto markets weakened and the Federal Reserve opened a two-day policy meeting. Prediction markets on Polymarket reduced the likelihood the bill becomes law this year from 29.5% Monday to 12.5% Tuesday morning, and most large non-stablecoin tokens fell.

By AI NewsroomPublished about 8 hours agoUpdated about 8 hours ago0 views

Bitcoin Falls Below $76,000 as Traders Cut CLARITY Act Odds Hours Before Senate Vote

Why It Matters

The rapid retreat in enactment odds for the CLARITY Act coincided with a drop in major cryptocurrencies, showing how political and macro event risk is feeding into crypto prices ahead of a key Senate vote and an FOMC decision. Traders are balancing both a procedural congressional test and a likely Fed rate increase within roughly 28 hours, which can drive short-term volatility and portfolio flows in crypto and broader markets.

Key Facts

bitcoin price (last): $76,018
24-hour bitcoin change: down 3.1%
polymarket CLARITY Act odds (Tuesday morning): 12.5%
polymarket CLARITY Act odds (Monday afternoon): 29.5%
polymarket cumulative volume (CLARITY Act market): $17.9 million

Bitcoin reversed gains and traded near $76,000 early Tuesday after prediction markets slashed the probability the CLARITY Act will be enacted this year. Data from CoinGecko and exchange feeds showed bitcoin down about 3.1% over 24 hours, while ether and several other large tokens also traded lower; weighted by market value, the 500 largest tokens fell about 2.5% over the same period. Total crypto market capitalization was roughly $2.71 trillion on $90.3 billion of trading volume, with bitcoin dominance around 56.2%.

Traders revisited the bill's prospects ahead of a Senate cloture vote scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET. Polymarket's market for the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year dropped to 12.5% on Tuesday morning from 29.5% on Monday afternoon, on $17.9 million of cumulative volume. A companion Polymarket contract showed the chance of the motion receiving more than 50 votes fell to about 41%, and the likelihood of more than 60 votes traded at 25%. Cloture requires 60 votes under a unanimous consent agreement printed in the Senate Calendar of Business; Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning seven Democrats would need to back the motion if every Republican voted to proceed.

Political pushback added to the headwinds: 18 state attorneys general sent a letter asking the Senate to reject the bill as written, urging preservation of state enforcement over tokenized and non-tokenized securities and protection of state registration regimes. New York Attorney General Letitia James said the text could limit attorneys general authority, and attorneys general from 17 states and the District of Columbia joined the request. As of Tuesday morning, none of the seven Democrats who negotiated the bill had publicly endorsed the final text.

Derivatives markets, by contrast, showed only modest repricing. Options implied volatility for bitcoin was around 38–39% according to Block Scholes research cited in the market note, with small relative upticks in shorter-dated tenors covering both the Senate procedural vote and the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee decision. Polymarket also shifted pricing on the Fed meeting: traders put an 86.5% chance on a quarter-point rate increase at the FOMC decision, with a roughly 12.5% chance of no change. Outside crypto, the 10-year Treasury par yield traded near 5.00%, equities slipped (S&P 500 down about 0.5%, Nasdaq down about 0.7%), and U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $159.9 million of inflows on Monday after several days of outflows.