Bitcoin falls below $84K as 10-year Treasury yield hits 19-year high
Bitcoin slipped below $84,000 to about $83,200 during Asian trading after the US 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest levels since 2007. Markets have been pricing a raised probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, while the Treasury prepared a $6 billion buyback of long-dated bonds.
Why It Matters
Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar can increase the appeal of government debt and raise borrowing costs, factors that may pressure risk assets such as Bitcoin. The shifting odds for Fed tightening and the Treasury's move to improve long-dated bond liquidity are influencing short-term market dynamics for crypto and fixed income.
Key Facts
- bitcoin price (approx.): $83,200
- us 10-year treasury yield (intraday): 5.13% (highest since 2007)
- 10-year treasury yield (close wednesday): 5.11%
- 10-year treasury yield (tuesday): 4.96%
- treasury buyback ceiling: $6 billion for bonds with ~20-30 years remaining
Bitcoin fell under $84,000 during Asian trading on Thursday, touching roughly $83,200 as US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to levels not seen since 2007. The 10-year yield rose from 4.96% on Tuesday to a 5.11% close on Wednesday and reached 5.13% intraday, a move partly attributed by CME to stronger US business data and higher oil prices. Analysts linked the yield surge and a firmer dollar to increased expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. Market participants have pushed up the odds of a rate increase at the Fed's October meeting; CME Group's FedWatch tool showed about a 75.3% probability of a hike to a 4.00-4.25% target range. One market commentator cited a rise in October-hike odds from roughly 55% to around 70% in short order. Rising Treasury yields can make government debt relatively more attractive and raise borrowing costs, which in turn can weigh on risk assets including Bitcoin. Traders noted a nearby technical level to watch at $82,833 if the pullback deepens, and warned that resilient US economic data or hawkish Fed signals could sustain upward pressure on yields and the dollar. Separately, the US Treasury announced a $6 billion ceiling for a buyback of long-dated bonds with about 20 to 30 years remaining, part of a program aimed at improving liquidity in the long end of the curve. On the price-history front, CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin has closed September higher in each of the past three years and that October has averaged a 19.92% gain historically, though past patterns have not guaranteed future results.
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