Bitcoin Heads Higher on Macro Moves: Where Does BTC Go Next?

Markets reacted to a much-smaller-than-expected U.S. jobs print for September — just 29,000 payrolls were added versus the 84,000 economists forecast — and the data also included downward revisions to the prior two months totaling 60,000. The weaker labor report lifted expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause at its October meeting: CME FedWatch odds of a rate hike in October fell to about 14% from roughly 70% earlier in the week, and several prediction markets put high odds on a hold for the Oct. 28 meeting. Risk assets benefited from the shift in rate expectations. The total crypto market capitalization moved above $3 trillion and the Fear & Greed Index read 71, signaling strong investor appetite. Bitcoin rose sharply after the payrolls release and was trading around $86,152, having tested an intraday high near $87,173 — just under the September peak of $87,354 that marks the top of its yearly range. Technical indicators point to a substantive uptrend but also flag potential short-term limits. The Average Directional Index (ADX) sits at 41.8, indicating a strong trend with buyers (DI+) outpacing sellers (DI-). The 50-day exponential moving average is above the 200-day, and a green shaded cloud below price has acted as support since mid-August. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about 68.1, close to the commonly watched 70 overbought threshold, which could encourage profit-taking. Momentum measures also show a bullish bias: the Squeeze Momentum Indicator is positive at 2.2 and suggests volatility has been released to the upside, while price sits near the upper portion of its band range. Traders monitoring the setup are looking for a daily close above $87,354 with ADX remaining strong to confirm a breakout. Macro risk remains relevant — the market still prices a December hike as the base case and Treasury yields are elevated — so the Fed's next policy signals on Oct. 28 will be an important test for whether Bitcoin extends its gains.