Bitcoin Holds, Wall Street Stalls as Oil Shock Revives Fed Hike Bets

Bitcoin and U.S. equities showed only modest moves on Tuesday as investors contended with rising oil prices and a tightening window ahead of key economic releases. Bitcoin traded near $78,524 after a brief dip earlier in the session, while the S&P 500 hovered around 7,689.80, remaining inside a notably narrow intraday range. The market reaction followed fresh U.S.-Iran hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz that pushed oil toward $100 a barrel. The backdrop has grown more hawkish since Friday's unexpectedly strong jobs report, which recorded 162,000 new positions in August versus a consensus of 53,000. That hotter labor reading has lifted the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting to roughly the high-50s percent on the CME FedWatch tool, a shift that can pressure risk assets if borrowing costs are raised. Technical indicators show Bitcoin holding above its so-called "golden zone," a support band between $73,986 and $75,569, with momentum gauges still favoring buyers. The RSI sits at 60.4, down from about 66 a week earlier, while the ADX reads 47.2, indicating a strong trend. The 50-day exponential moving average remains below the 200-day average, a bearish crossover that predates August's rally, though the token did close the month back above its 50-month moving average. Market positioning remains broadly bullish on the near-term upside: the Myriad prediction market assigns a 78.4% chance that Bitcoin reaches $84,000 before dropping to $55,000, a probability little changed from a week prior. On the equity side, the S&P 500 still sits within striking distance of its August 13 record close of 7,798.99, and HSBC has raised its year-end S&P target to 8,100 despite this week's pressures. Traders are largely waiting for Friday's inflation release and the Fed's policy decision next week to determine whether recent volatility becomes a turning point for risk assets.