Bitcoin’s price has cleared a key hurdle that has historically preceded major bull runs

Bitcoin’s weekly candlestick closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, a development market analysts and researchers flagged as an important technical signal. The crossover occurred in the week ending Sept. 20, when BTC climbed to roughly $81,450 — about $3,300 higher than the reported 50-week average near $78,115. The 50-week moving average represents the average weekly closing price over approximately the prior year and is commonly used to gauge Bitcoin’s long-term trend. Traders and analysts pay particular attention to weekly and daily candles that close above or below major moving averages, because sustained closes are considered more meaningful than brief intraday penetrations of those levels. Weekly candles for Bitcoin close at 23:59 UTC on Sunday, making the end-of-week reading a focal point for this signal. Galaxy Research, whose head Alex Thorn described the move as a potential confirmation that the bear phase may be ending, reviewed historical instances of similar crossovers. The firm identified 13 prior weekly reclaims of the 50-week line; in 11 of those cases, Bitcoin did not go on to set a new cycle low afterward. Notable past crossovers preceded large rallies — for example, reclaims in 2012, 2015 and 2019 were followed by extended gains in subsequent years. The dataset is not without exceptions. Two prior crossovers during the volatile late-2021 to early-2022 period failed, with Bitcoin briefly clearing the average before rolling over and moving toward the 2022 low near $16,000. Analysts caution that while historical crossovers have often signaled durable market turnarounds, past performance does not guarantee future results. Going forward, observers say the significance of the current breakout will depend on whether Bitcoin can remain above the roughly $78,115 50-week average in the coming weeks.