Bitcoin’s recovery stalls just short of rescuing its last underwater cohort

On-chain metrics indicate that the cohort of investors who bought bitcoin in 2025 remains the only yearly buyer group holding losses, with an estimated volume-weighted average purchase price near $88,000. That level now appears to be exerting resistance after bitcoin reached a monthly high around $87,500 in September and has since pulled back below $84,000.

Historically, yearly volume-weighted cost bases have functioned as turning points for price action: as bitcoin approaches a cohort’s average entry price, some holders take profits at breakeven while others may use the level to accumulate. The 2024 cohort’s average cost basis previously matched a move near $82,100 in May, where bitcoin met resistance and subsequently declined toward $60,000 before reclaiming higher ground in August.

Smaller cohorts have also influenced intracycle support and resistance. The 2023 cohort’s average cost basis, around $65,000, repeatedly acted as a support band through the 2026 drawdown, briefly being undercut at times but broadly holding. Buyers from 2026 have an average cost basis near $73,500 and have been in profit since the late-August rally pushed prices above that level.

Another important reference point is the average cost basis of U.S. spot bitcoin ETF deposits, currently about $82,300 according to Glassnode data cited in the piece. ETF investors recently returned to profitability for the first time this year, so that aggregated ETF cost basis could become a significant support level if the pullback continues and depositors react to being back near or below their entry price.