Bitcoin SOPR metric sees longest profit run of 2026 as new analysis challenges bear market
Bitcoin's spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has remained above the breakeven mark of 1 since Aug. 19, marking its longest bullish run of 2026 so far and currently reading about 1.002. Some onchain analysts interpret the sustained profitability of moved UTXOs as early signs of a bull-market recovery, while prominent analyst David Puell cautions that downside risk remains until SOPR and price structure confirm a durable reversal.
Why It Matters
SOPR staying above 1 for multiple weeks signals that more coins are being transacted at a profit, a behavior more typical of bull phases and one factor used to gauge market regime. However, leading voices in the market disagree on whether this single metric is sufficient to declare the bear market over, making the development consequential for investor sentiment and positioning.
Key Facts
- SOPR breakeven date: Above 1 since Aug. 19, 2026
- Current SOPR value: 1.002 (as reported)
- Length of bullish SOPR streak: Three full weeks — longest stretch in 2026 so far
- What SOPR measures: Whether coins moved onchain are transacted at higher or lower prices than their previous spends
- STH definition (as used in analysis): Wallets holding a UTXO without selling for up to six months
Crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin’s spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has remained above the breakeven level of 1 since Aug. 19, putting the indicator in its longest bullish run of 2026. SOPR tracks whether coins being spent onchain change hands at prices above or below their prior transaction; readings above 1 imply most moved coins are in profit and are often interpreted as bullish momentum.
Some onchain commentators say the recent SOPR behavior resembles the early stages of post-bear recoveries. Checkonchain pointed to short-term holder SOPR readings — focusing on wallets that haven’t sold within six months — and argued that the present pattern is more consistent with buy-the-dip setups seen in bull markets than the sell-first rallies typical of bear markets.
Not all analysts are ready to declare a regime shift, however. ARK Invest portfolio manager David Puell told CryptoQuant on Sept. 4 that he still views the situation as carrying downside risk. Puell said SOPR would need to sustain levels above 1 for a longer period, with consistent profit-taking by holders that does not accompany new price lows, before he would change his long-term bias.
The outlook remains divided across the sector. Cointelegraph noted that Bitcoin has not yet established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on weekly timeframes, a classic confirmation of trend change, while CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju described the bear market as over in late August based on his firm’s proprietary cycle indicator. BTC/USD has been trading in a local range around $80,000 amid these competing signals, leaving market participants to weigh short-term profitability data against broader structural criteria.
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