Bitcoin tops $79K, oil falls as Trump says Iran war could end

Bitcoin reversed weekend losses and climbed back above $79,000 during Monday trading as investors parsed messages from US President Donald Trump indicating the Iran conflict might be nearing a resolution. Data from TradingView recorded roughly a 3% intraday gain as the cryptocurrency recaptured a key technical level.

The prospect of de-escalation pressured oil prices, which had been elevated amid concerns over threats to major Middle Eastern shipping and pipeline routes including the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline and the Bab El-Mandeb. US WTI crude remained north of $100 per barrel and Brent traded near $105, but both eased after Trump suggested a deal could be possible and predicted oil would fall sharply once fighting ends.

Monetary policy expectations also shifted: the CME Group FedWatch Tool raised the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve increase to roughly 92.7%, a sizeable jump from about 59.4% the prior week. Market participants and trading houses such as QCP Capital warned that persistently high energy prices could complicate the Fed’s task by lifting inflation expectations and limiting the central bank’s ability to pause tightening if costs feed into broader price pressures.

Technically, Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average at about $77,430 after initially closing the weekly candle below that trend line, a level some analysts view as important for bulls seeking a sustained recovery. With the Fed decision and accompanying policy language due this week, commentators said investors would focus less on whether a hike occurs and more on the wording that signals the likely path for rates ahead.