Bitcoin treasuries may struggle to match Strategy, says Ammous

Saifedean Ammous told Cointelegraph’s Proof of Thesis that other companies built primarily as Bitcoin treasuries will face an uphill battle competing with Michael Saylor’s Strategy. He pointed to Strategy’s scale and its sizable dollar reserve as key advantages that let the company borrow more cheaply and withstand market drawdowns without approaching liquidation. Strategy reported holding 847,666 BTC acquired for $63.95 billion and disclosed a $5.02 billion US dollar reserve in an 8-K filing.

Ammous noted Strategy modified its financing approach over the summer when Bitcoin fell below $60,000 and the company’s STRC preferred stock traded well under its $100 target. The company increased the STRC dividend to 12%, repurchased shares, built cash reserves and sold some Bitcoin to fund dividends and buybacks before resuming purchases. Ammous said those actions leave Strategy with enough liquidity to cover payments even if prices fall substantially.

Beyond corporate treasuries, Ammous argued that businesses with positive cash flow can prudently allocate surplus cash into Bitcoin as a long-term reserve, while keeping separate liquidity for day-to-day operations. He added he expects more companies to adopt that approach but cautioned that investing in Strategy itself carries risks and that he prefers holding Bitcoin directly.

On market outlook, Ammous said Bitcoin has probably bottomed but acknowledged another crash remains possible. He suggested the next cycle peak could arrive around 2029 and offered a rough 2030 price estimate near $200,000 based on a power-law model, while disclaiming he would not bet on that figure.