‘Bordering on angry’: The state of play as US midterms enter final month
With one month to go before the US midterm elections, Democrats are entering October with growing momentum in congressional battlegrounds while Republicans are pouring money into contests once seen as safe. Polling and political trackers show Democrats improving their House prospects and making the Senate more competitive even as President Donald Trump records historically low approval ratings.
Why It Matters
Control of both the House and Senate is at stake, and shifts in a small number of seats would determine which party holds legislative power to influence oversight and the agenda for the next two years. The mix of changing polls and heavy ad spending means outcomes remain fluid and could reshape Congress’s relationship with the White House.
Key Facts
- Timeframe: Around 30 days before the November 3 midterm elections
- Presidential approval (AP-NORC): Donald Trump at 31 percent approval
- Presidential economy approval: 26 percent approved Trump’s handling of the economy (per AP-NORC)
- House outlook: Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races toward Democrats; analysts project Democrats could net 5 to 15 House seats
- Senate seats up: 35 Senate seats are contested in this cycle
As the calendar moves into October, Democratic operatives and independent trackers are reporting a brighter picture for their party in congressional races, while Republican strategists are redirecting resources to shore up vulnerable contests. Political analysis outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have recently moved additional House races into the Democratic column or into toss-up status, narrowing the path Republicans must hold to keep control of the chamber.
The Cook Political Report alone moved 15 House contests toward Democrats, including a Texas border district held by Republican Monica De La Cruz, now rated a toss-up against Democrat Bobby Pulido. Overall, Cook’s adjustments have led its model to forecast a Democratic gain of roughly 5 to 15 House seats, a shift that would hand Democrats the majority in the 435-member chamber.
The Senate picture has tightened as well, reducing what had once seemed an unlikely path for Democrats to win control. With 35 seats up for election, analysts say polling since early September has generally trended in Democrats’ favor and made several Republican-held contests more competitive. The piece highlights races where Democrats are leading in survey averages and notes competitive matchups in states including North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Maine.
Money is playing a central role in the closing weeks. At least $4 billion had been spent on gubernatorial and congressional advertising by September 17, and Republican committees entered September with substantially larger cash reserves than their Democratic counterparts. According to reporting cited, the Republican National Committee held $125.6 million, and when combined with the three major GOP committees the party had about $233.4 million in cash; Democrats were reported to have $130 million across their comparable committees, with the Democratic National Committee singled out as having $16.9 million on hand and $17.6 million in debt. Parties and donors are increasingly shifting funds toward marquee contests as they try to influence the final outcomes.
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