Brazil votes in deeply polarised election pitting Lula against Bolsonaro

Ballot boxes opened across Brazil as voters decide a presidential race that again matches Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against a Bolsonaro family candidate. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president’s eldest son, has carried the family’s right-wing platform into the contest, while Lula campaigns to extend social programmes he says address inequality. Opinion polling ahead of polling day showed a close national contest, with many surveys giving Lula a small lead that narrows further in scenarios projecting a second-round face-off. Brazilian election law requires a run-off if no contender wins an absolute majority of valid votes, which would push the calendar to October 25. The campaign has been dominated by public anxiety over crime and insecurity, alongside persistent concerns about the high cost of living. Corruption and fears of foreign — especially US — interference in Brazil’s internal affairs also featured prominently during the campaign. A recent Quaest survey cited violence as the top concern for 31% of respondents, followed by corruption (20%), the economy (19%) and healthcare (12%). The election unfolds against a backdrop of institutional strain. Jair Bolsonaro was convicted and given a 27-year prison sentence for his role in a coup plot after narrowly losing to Lula in 2022 by 1.8 percentage points; the convictions of several military officers in related cases have raised questions about the resilience of Brazil’s democratic framework. Observers and scholars highlight that the two sides present starkly different interpretations of Brazil’s recent democratic trajectory, a divide that voters must now adjudicate at the ballot box.