Brent Tops $106 And Hike Odds Reach 64% As Crypto Sells Off
A surge in Brent crude and stronger-than-expected producer-price inflation pushed long-term U.S. Treasury yields to multi-year highs and raised market odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase, while most large cryptocurrencies fell. Bitcoin traded around $77,120 as 103 of the 125 largest non-stablecoin tokens were lower on the day, and Brent rose above $106 a barrel amid reported tanker strikes in the Gulf region.
Why It Matters
Higher oil prices and a 0.4% rise in August producer prices pushed the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields to recent highs and increased the probability traders attach to a September Fed rate hike—moves that coincided with broad weakness across crypto markets. The combination of tighter policy expectations and supply disruptions in oil shipping could amplify market volatility across commodities, bonds and digital assets.
Key Facts
- bitcoin price: $77,120 (last traded), down 2.1% over 24 hours and 5.1% over seven days
- brent crude: $106.83 a barrel on Thursday afternoon, up 5.6% on the day; up 11.7% since Sept. 2
- producer-price-index (PPI): Final demand PPI rose 0.4% in August; 12-month increase 5.4% (BLS Sept. 10 release)
- treasury yields: 10-year reached 4.92% (highest since Oct. 25, 2023); 30-year reached 5.34%, above every daily close of past five years
- fed-hike odds (Polymarket/market pricing): Traders priced a quarter-point September increase rising from 52.5% at 8 a.m. ET to about 63.5% by early afternoon; market-wide contract at 63.5% for Sept. 15-16 on Polymarket
Global markets reacted to a confluence of stronger-than-expected producer-price data and a sharp rise in crude oil prices, sending long-term U.S. Treasury yields to multi-year highs and lifting bets on an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported final demand producer prices rose 0.4% in August, pushing 12-month PPI to a 5.4% gain and core PPI up 0.3% for the month. Bond markets repriced swiftly: the 10-year Treasury hit about 4.92% and the 30-year reached roughly 5.34% on Thursday.
Brent crude climbed above $106 a barrel, its strongest level since May 19, as a series of reported tanker strikes in the Gulf region added to supply concerns. U.S. Central Command said its forces had destroyed five Iranian crude carriers on Sept. 8 after the IRGC struck at a U.S. Navy warship, naming the M/T Kaviz, M/T Charminar, M/T Horizon 1, M/T Riesco and M/T Derya and locating four strikes in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island. The U.S. Maritime Administration also issued advisory 2026-011 on Sept. 9 noting continued threats to commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.
Those developments fed into market pricing for central-bank policy: traders increased the probability of a quarter-point Fed hike for the Sept. 15-16 meeting, with the same contract trading from about 52.5% at 8 a.m. ET to the low- to mid-60s by early afternoon, and Polymarket showing a 63.5% price on a quarter-point move. The European Central Bank also raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, lifting the deposit facility to 2.50% effective Sept. 16.
Risk assets felt the fallout. Most large cryptocurrencies declined through the U.S. trading day — 103 of the 125 biggest non-stablecoin tokens were lower in a 1:10 p.m. ET snapshot — with bitcoin at about $77,120 and ether near $2,449. Mid-cap tokens saw the heaviest pressure, and the ten largest decliners among the top 150 tokens each fell more than 10%. One notable outlier: Ether.fi rose 14.2% following a buyback vote that closed a week earlier. DeFi total value locked slipped to $87.13 billion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 69 (greed).
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