Brent Tumbles to $96 as Gulf Oil Flows Bounce Back

Crude oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday after banks and data firms reported that flows out of the Persian Gulf had largely recovered to pre-war volumes. Brent slipped to about $97.36 per barrel from above $103, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate traded near $89.57, down from just over $90 a day earlier.

By AI Newsroom· Reviewed by Pranav, Founder & Editor-in-ChiefPublished 1 minute agoUpdated 1 minute ago0 views

Why It Matters

The reported restoration of Persian Gulf exports reduces a key geopolitical risk premium that had supported higher oil prices, while continued shipping incidents and higher transit costs mean the region remains operationally risky. Markets reacted quickly to the data, driving a notable intraday price decline.

Key Facts

Brent price (at time of writing): $97.36 per barrel
Brent price (previous day): over $103 per barrel
WTI price (at time of writing): $89.57 per barrel
WTI price (previous day): over $90 per barrel
Kpler export reading for Hormuz: close to 80% of pre-war levels (earlier in the week)

Crude futures eased sharply after several market participants published estimates indicating a rebound in oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. Data and analysis from Kpler, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs suggested exports via the Strait of Hormuz and other Gulf outlets have moved back toward levels seen before the recent conflict-driven disruptions. Kpler’s figures earlier in the week showed exports through Hormuz at roughly 80% of pre-war levels. JP Morgan estimated flows could be as high as 98% of pre-war volumes, while Goldman Sachs put total Middle East exports at about 23.3 million barrels per day — the same monthly average Goldman reports for 2025. Goldman’s analysts also highlighted a shift within regional supply: they said Saudi Arabian shipments rose in September, reportedly exceeding September of the prior year and moving above their 2025 average, offsetting a fall in Iranian exports. That combination of data undercut some of the scarcity-driven support for oil prices and contributed to the move lower in futures. Shipping and insurance media reported incidents of attacks on tankers in or near the Strait of Hormuz — accounts carried by outlets such as Lloyd’s List and initial alerts from the UK Maritime Trade Operations — but those reports did not appear to influence prices in the same way as the flow data. Market participants note that while physical volumes seem to be recovering via ship-to-ship transfers and alternative routing, the routes remain exposed to security risks and higher transportation costs for vessels operating in the area.