BTC price eyes best Q3 in nine years: Three things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin fell below $83,000 at the start of the week as markets reacted to renewed US-Iran war risks that also weighed on US equities. Despite the intraday weakness, the token had recorded a weekly close near $84,450, its strongest since late January, before liquidity clustered on exchange order books contributed to further downside toward one-week lows around $82,557.

Short-term order-book dynamics appear to have amplified selling pressure: analytics showed about $30 million of ask liquidity forming near $85,700 and then being removed, which coincided with an accelerated price decline. Traders face additional timing pressure this week, with both the monthly and Q3 quarterly candles set to close midweek around significant price benchmarks.

Macro releases due this week add to the headline risk. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures index for August and September nonfarm payrolls could affect market views on the Federal Reserve’s path for interest rates. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in October at roughly 70% as of Monday, up from about 58% a week earlier.

Technically, analysts say Bitcoin must hold roughly $82,500 to validate a pattern analogous to its post-2022 recovery. Trader Rekt Capital points to an inverse head-and-shoulders setup on weekly charts and says turning $82,500 into support would support a reaccumulation range above that level. On-chain data show recent buyers (one to four weeks old) remain in aggregate profit with a cost basis near $78,300, while broader investor cost bases and corporate treasury levels cluster between roughly $76,700 and $80,500.