California Heat Wave Tests Grid as Power Demand Surges
The National Weather Service has issued heat advisories across California's Central Valley and coastal regions, with extreme heat warnings in parts of Southern California and forecasts of triple-digit temperatures in sections of the Central Valley. The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) expects peak electricity demand to approach 47,379 megawatts on Wednesday, while rising cooling loads are already pushing up wholesale power prices.
Why It Matters
Higher air-conditioning use amid the heat wave increases strain on the grid, particularly in the evening when solar output falls, which can raise wholesale power prices and heighten the risk of tight supply during peak demand periods.
Key Facts
- Weather advisories: National Weather Service issued heat advisories across California's Central Valley and coastal areas, including the Bay Area and Los Angeles; extreme heat warnings in parts of Southern California.
- Los Angeles forecast: Bloomberg: Los Angeles-area temperatures forecast at 85°F to 105°F, roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
- San Francisco forecast: San Francisco could reach 86°F on Wednesday.
- Sacramento forecast: Sacramento expected to reach 100°F on Thursday.
- CAISO Wednesday peak forecast: CAISO expects peak electricity demand of 47,379 megawatts on Wednesday.
State weather authorities have expanded heat advisories and warnings across much of California, with the most severe alerts concentrated in parts of Southern California and high temperatures expected in the Central Valley. Bloomberg forecasts put Los Angeles-area highs between the mid-80s and low 100s, San Francisco near the mid-80s on Wednesday, and Sacramento hitting around 100°F on Thursday.
The California Independent System Operator, which runs the grid serving about 80% of California and a small portion of Nevada, said it expects peak demand to reach roughly 47,379 megawatts on Wednesday and about 45,183 megawatts on Thursday—below the September 2022 record of 52,061 megawatts but still elevated. Operators warned that cooling loads will climb over the next several days, increasing pressure on the system, especially in the evening hours when rooftop and utility-scale solar production wanes.
Wholesale power markets are already reflecting the uptick in cooling demand. Day-ahead prices at Southern California’s SP15 hub reached $87.69 per megawatt-hour for Tuesday’s 6 p.m. hour, the highest hourly level in a little more than a week, according to market data compiled by Arcus Power on its NRGStream platform. Grid managers and market participants are watching prices and demand closely as the heat persists.
Forecast models indicate statewide maximum temperatures could peak around Thursday before easing toward mid-month, when highs may fall to about 75°F. In the near term, the combination of high temperatures, elevated air-conditioning use and declining solar output after sunset is expected to be the main driver of stress on California’s electric system.
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