Can the World Hit 35% Electrification by 2035?

An International Energy Agency analysis released ahead of COP31 finds that the world could realistically push electricity to supply roughly one-third of final energy consumption by 2035, up from about 23 percent at present. The IEA’s baseline in the report indicates electricity could reach 33 percent under current policy settings, and the study underpins a proposed pledge to raise that to 35 percent by 2035 at the UN climate conference in Antalya in November 2026. The report underscores that electricity demand has been rising faster than total energy use, expanding at over 3 percent per year between 2015 and 2025, a trend that helps make accelerated electrification achievable. The IEA also notes the projections were prepared using pre-war electricity price assumptions, implying that recent price spikes tied to geopolitical turmoil are expected to moderate in the modelling. The current energy-price crisis, driven in part by disruptions linked to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has reportedly accelerated electrification efforts as import-dependent countries seek domestic, less geopolitically exposed energy sources. Observers point to rapid deployments of rooftop solar across Southeast Asia and growing interest in nuclear and other clean options as governments and consumers respond to volatile oil and gas markets. Developing economies have already been significant drivers of clean-energy expansion, aided by declining costs and equipment exports from China. The report highlights that, by the end of 2025, 63 percent of emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America obtained a larger share of their power generation from solar than the United States. Separate analysis from S&P Global cited in the coverage warns that emerging economies could raise global energy demand by more than 60 percent by 2060, reinforcing the need for expanded clean electricity to meet growth while reducing fossil-fuel import bills. The IEA estimates that accelerating electrification could yield substantial economic benefits: collectively, faster action on electrification could save countries more than $400 billion through 2035 while supporting climate mitigation goals. The analysis commissioned by Türkiye and Australia is intended to inform COP31 negotiations and a potential international pledge to reach 35 percent electrification by 2035, a threshold linked in prior assessments to pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C and achieving over 50 percent electrification by 2050.