Centre-left opposition bloc leads in Swedish vote, poll shows

Exit polls released on Sunday showed Sweden's centre-left opposition ahead of the right-wing bloc, with public broadcaster SVT projecting 51.3 percent to the right's 46.8 percent. Broadcaster TV4 ran a separate election-day poll that likewise indicated a lead for the opposition. Voting finished at 18:00 GMT and official tallies are now being produced by the Swedish Election Authority, with early results expected within hours.

The campaign entered the final stretch having narrowed a previously sizable advantage for the opposition. Earlier in the year polls had suggested the left-leaning bloc led by Magdalena Andersson's Social Democrats by about 10 percentage points, but that margin fell to roughly two to three points in the closing weeks, turning what had looked like a comfortable contest into a much tighter race.

Analysts and voters will be cautious about treating exit polls as definitive: Sweden's 2022 election saw exit polling and forecasts favour the centre-left, yet a right-wing coalition led by Ulf Kristersson ultimately formed the government. The 2022 vote also produced a strong result for the Sweden Democrats, who won 20.5 percent and have been a key force on the right.

The potential outcomes carry wider political implications. If the centre-left lead is confirmed, the Sweden Democrats would be less likely to join government; earlier this year Kristersson said his conservative Moderates would be open to including the Sweden Democrats in a governing coalition if the right secured a majority. A left-leaning result in Sweden would also be viewed in the context of recent far-right successes elsewhere in Europe, such as the Alternative for Germany's 44 percent in a recent state election. Official vote counts from the Election Authority will determine whether the early projections hold true.