China Could Cut Fuel Exports in October as Inventories Plunge

China’s fuel export picture has rebalanced rapidly after Beijing removed mid-July limits that had been imposed during the Strait of Hormuz disruption. In August, Chinese refiners shipped 6.01 million tons of petroleum products, a 12.7% rise from the previous year, and overall export volumes exceeded pre-war levels; jet fuel exports hit a record high in that period. Despite the recent export recovery and expectations for continued strong shipments in September, analysts say October may see lower outward flows as domestic gasoline and diesel inventories have plunged to their lowest in seven years. GL Consulting, a MySteel-owned consultancy, warned that constrained domestic supply together with strengthening internal demand will likely lead refiners to favour the home market over exports. The consultancy framed the situation as a supply-demand balance issue rather than solely an inventory story: elevated exports from July through September drew additional barrels out of domestic stocks, while seasonal factors—summer travel boosting gasoline use and autumn harvesting plus pre-season restocking lifting diesel consumption—have supported robust domestic demand. If China does cut refined product exports in October, the move could intensify an already tight global fuel market affected by constraints related to the Middle East and Russia. Market observers note that tighter supply conditions have contributed to record-high refining margins and retail fuel prices in several markets, including the United States. China had not announced official fuel export plans for October at the time of the report.