China's LNG Imports Set for Second Straight Monthly Drop

China's LNG imports are poised to decline for a second consecutive month as surging spot prices linked to the war in the Middle East weigh on purchases, according to data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. September shipments to China are estimated at 5.3 million tonnes, a modest increase from Kpler's August estimate of 5.2 million tonnes but reported to be about 8% below the comparable month cited in the source.

Market-wide spot prices have jumped sharply in recent weeks, with Kpler data referenced by the source showing prices rising above $20 per million British thermal units in August and reaching roughly $26 per mmBtu in early September. Those levels represent about a twofold increase versus the prior year and have damped buying appetite across Asia.

Kpler has also projected that total Asian LNG inflows will fall to about 20.09 million tonnes, the lowest in eight years and down from 22.27 million tonnes in the same month the previous year. For China specifically, the pause in buying marks a reversal of a spree that began in May, when imports ran at higher rates than a year earlier.

Separately, China's major state LNG importers are reportedly negotiating long-term supply deals with exporters whose shipments avoid the Strait of Hormuz, part of an effort to reduce exposure to Persian Gulf deliveries. The country is not seeking to cancel its binding contracts with Qatar, while Qatar has extended a force majeure on LNG exports, a move the source says could sustain elevated prices as demand increases ahead of the Northern Hemisphere heating season.