China Will Dominate Global Nuclear Energy Through 2035, Analyst Says

Analysts and policy researchers say China is rapidly expanding both its conventional nuclear fleet and its portfolio of advanced reactor technologies, positioning Beijing to lead global nuclear energy through 2035. Damien Ma, energy lead analyst at Gavekal Technologies, wrote that China will hold by a wide margin the world’s most dynamic nuclear industry through that year, pointing to faster construction timelines and a surge in capacity additions. China has substantially outpaced the United States in recent years: while the U.S. completed a single new reactor at Georgia’s Plant Vogtle—an effort noted for delays and cost overruns—China added about 34 gigawatts of capacity over the past decade. Gavekal highlighted construction efficiency as a key factor, saying Chinese projects can reach completion in roughly six years versus more than ten for the latest U.S. Vogtle units. Beyond scaling traditional reactors, Chinese programs span a diverse set of advanced technologies. Industry reporting and think-tank analysis describe Chinese work on in‑reactor thorium breeding, hybrid reactor pairings (PWR-HTGR), and commercial supercritical CO2 generation, with an aim toward fuel independence and industrial deployment. The Center for Strategic and International Studies says China’s latest five‑year plan frames nuclear energy around innovation, security, and global engagement. In a notable move toward international cooperation, China signed an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency to share expertise on high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). According to reporting on the accord, the cooperation covers HTGR research and development, reactor design, construction, commissioning, operation, supply-chain information, and personnel training—potentially giving other countries wider access to Chinese engineering experience as interest grows in reactors that can supply both electricity and high‑temperature industrial heat. U.S. officials and administrations have also signaled intent to boost domestic nuclear capabilities, including work on advanced reactors and fusion and efforts to develop domestic uranium extraction and enrichment. However, multiple sources cited in reporting say U.S. spending and technological depth on next‑generation nuclear currently lag China’s rapid expansion and coordinated industrial push.