CLARITY Act odds fall to 16% as key Democrats resist GOP’s ‘final’ offer

Traders on prediction market Polymarket sharply downgraded the likelihood that the CLARITY Act will become law this year after an initial rise in odds. The measure’s chance briefly climbed to 35% when Republicans circulated a revised text that expanded ethics provisions, but confidence faded and the probability dropped to around 16% by Monday as skepticism from key Democrats mounted.

Several Senate Democrats involved in negotiations told reporters the updated ethics language did not go far enough. Senator Mark Warner said the revision fell short, and reporting from Punchbowl News indicated Senator Raphael Warnock and Senator Ruben Gallego voiced concerns that the proposal did not adequately address real-time corruption risks. Staff for Senator Elizabeth Warren circulated talking points criticizing a state attorney-general enforcement mechanism as potentially undermined by White House ethics determinations, and Democrats prepared a counterproposal they later sent to Republican negotiators, according to Politico.

Republican negotiators say they have limited room to concede. Senator Cynthia Lummis asserted that President Trump had accepted two major ethics changes and said there was nothing further to offer. Republicans must still secure 60 votes to advance the bill; failure on a procedural vote could stall progress for legislation that would clarify how the SEC and CFTC split regulatory authority over the US crypto market.

Outside Capitol Hill, interest groups added to the pressure. The Indian Gaming Association urged tribal members to oppose the bill, arguing its treatment of decentralized finance and prediction markets fails to protect tribal gaming authority and calling for explicit non-preemption language with respect to federal commodities law and the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. Eight banking trade groups warned the revised text leaves open a loophole that could let stablecoin reward programs function like deposit interest and said a proposed regulatory “circuit breaker” would trigger only after major deposit outflows from community banks. Crypto industry groups, by contrast, urged senators to move forward; Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger said the industry had made concessions to secure bipartisan backing and urged a yes vote, arguing the bill would create clearer rules and protect consumers.