CLARITY Act vote meets Fed rate hike: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin markets entered the third week of September trading under several key technical levels, with the price below its 50-week moving average near $77,400 and weekly supports. On-chain indicators still show a bullish RSI divergence, but short-term momentum has softened as traders await two headline events that could amplify volatility.

The Federal Reserve loomed large for risk assets this week, with markets pricing a 25 basis-point increase to a 3.75–4.00% policy range on Wednesday. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a rate pause had fallen to about 13.3% from over 40% a week earlier, after recent inflation prints and a rise in oil prices. Commentators cited hawkish remarks from Fed chair Kevin Warsh and noted public pressure from President Donald Trump to avoid hikes and instead pursue cuts.

Energy-market developments have added to the inflation backdrop: oil climbed above $100 per barrel amid supply concerns tied to disruptions in key transit routes. Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter warned that the potential loss of roughly 30 million barrels per day of transit capacity would be large relative to a roughly 100 million barrel-per-day global market, and consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. have risen to about 4.6% over the coming year.

A day before the Fed, crypto-specific policy risk took center stage as the Senate prepared a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act. Republicans released what they described as a final 635-page version of the bill, and supporters said passage of cloture on Tuesday would allow the text to reach the Senate floor for debate. Political figures argued the bill would provide clearer rules and ethics restrictions, while prediction markets placed the probability of CLARITY becoming law in 2026 at about 34%.

Market positioning showed traders reducing exposure into both events. Santiment’s data indicated open interest denominated in BTC fell roughly 13.5% in the week through Sept. 11, dropping from 321,497 BTC to 278,151 BTC while spot BTC lost about 5%. That left overall positioning about 20% below levels seen before the mid‑August rally. At the same time, CryptoQuant reported that aggregate funding rates have risen since late May—shifting away from the negative-rate regime that began in early March—suggesting a gradual return of bullish leverage even as participants pared risk ahead of the vote and the Fed decision.