Could US pull one-third of troops from Europe? What that would mean

U.S. defense officials are reportedly preparing plans to shrink the American military presence in Europe following a standoff with several allies over access to their bases for operations targeting Iran. The deliberations come amid a NATO review announced in June and after European governments refused requests to allow U.S. forces to use their airbases for strikes, a development senior Pentagon figures have framed as unacceptable.

Sources cited by U.S. media say one option under consideration would remove about one-third of the roughly 68,000 U.S. service members currently stationed in Europe, with Germany, Italy and Spain among the most affected locations. A more extensive option reportedly under review could see roughly 40,000 troops depart along with military aircraft, naval ships and weapons systems. Officials are also weighing whether to reposition forces from Central and Western Europe toward NATO’s eastern flank nearer to Russia.

Some withdrawals have already taken place: about half of the roughly 2,000 U.S. personnel in Romania left last year, and around 5,000 troops are in the process of departing Germany — which hosts more than half of the U.S. contingent in Europe. The proposed drawdown follows a period of fraying relations between Washington and some European capitals, driven by disputes over basing access for actions related to Iran, trade tensions, and longstanding disagreements about NATO defence spending.

Analysts say a large U.S. pullback would have strategic implications for both Europe and the United States. Observers at the German Marshall Fund warned that reducing American forces could weaken the U.S. nuclear and conventional deterrent in Europe and provide Moscow with potential advantages, though the precise impact would depend on which units and where they are moved. U.S. political figures from both houses of Congress have also expressed concern that withdrawals could send an unfavorable signal to Russia. According to reporting, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to submit final plans in the coming days, with a decision reported as due by November 6.