Crypto researchers cut Bitcoin and Ethereum quantum attack estimate by 50%

Researchers have released a paper, shared with CoinDesk, reporting that a group of humans and AI agents produced better results than those published by Google in March for a central computation used in Shor’s algorithm. The paper does not merely replicate Google’s benchmark; it advances the underlying calculation that Shor’s algorithm depends on, according to the authors.

The improvement over Google’s March result comes from combining human insight with artificial agents to optimize the targeted calculation. Because Shor’s algorithm is the primary quantum algorithm for attacking public-key cryptography, advances in components of that algorithm can reduce the resources or time required to run a practical quantum cryptographic attack.

As a direct consequence of their improved computation, the researchers say the estimated timeline or effort required to mount a quantum attack on major cryptocurrencies has been reduced. Specifically, they report cutting prior estimates for attacks on Bitcoin and Ethereum by about 50%, a revision that tightens the window in which those networks might face quantum risk.

The authors characterize this development as another variable to consider when assessing the so-called “quantum clock” for cryptocurrencies. Observers and custodians of blockchain systems will likely treat such methodological improvements as data points in ongoing evaluations of quantum readiness and cryptographic migration plans.