DDHQ director says Mike Rogers’s time is ‘running out’

Scott Tranter, who heads data science at Decision Desk HQ, said Sunday that Republican Mike Rogers is running out of time to close the gap with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate contest. DDHQ’s probabilistic model currently gives El-Sayed a 67% chance of winning in November, with Rogers assigned a 33% probability. Tranter described El-Sayed as having clear momentum and emphasized the race’s urgency for Republicans given Michigan’s substantial early-voting share; he said roughly a third of the state’s votes will be cast before Election Day. Tranter and host Chris Stirewalt characterized the contest as tighter than Republicans would prefer if they aim to retain Senate control. The campaign has also featured heightened attention to El-Sayed’s positions on Israel and Gaza. Stirewalt and Tranter noted that El-Sayed’s public statements and his connection to former Vice President Kamala Harris could complicate Rogers’s efforts, pointing to backlash Harris faced from pro-Palestinian voters during the 2024 presidential cycle. Harris is slated to join El-Sayed at a roundtable on Black maternal health, an issue both have publicly highlighted. Tensions have emerged on other fronts: more than a dozen Michigan rabbis and Jewish leaders circulated a petition urging El-Sayed to modify his rhetoric on Israel and to affirm Jewish safety and Israel’s right to exist; the petition did not name him but was widely seen as directed at his campaign. Meanwhile, Rogers did not appear at a recent televised debate with El-Sayed, saying he ‘‘never agreed’’ to participate; El-Sayed spoke at the event next to an empty podium. The moderator, Fox 2 Detroit’s Roop Raj, rejected Rogers’s claims of bias and asked that he appear for voters’ benefit. Rogers has said two televised debates are scheduled for October. Recent public polling shows a close race: a Hill/Emerson College survey released Thursday found El-Sayed at 48% and Rogers at 46%, with 4% of respondents still undecided.