‘Everything changed’: The human cost of 25 years of US wars
Within a month of the September 11 attacks, the United States invaded Afghanistan and launched a broader 'War on Terror' that expanded to Iraq and other countries across the Middle East, South Asia and Africa. Research from Brown University's Costs of War project estimates that US-led wars since 2001 have resulted in roughly 4.5–4.7 million deaths and have displaced more than 38 million people.
Why It Matters
These figures show the large, long-term human consequences of two and a half decades of US military campaigns, including substantial indirect mortality from disease and malnutrition as well as widespread displacement. The scale highlights how the impacts of conflict persist long after active combat ends.
Key Facts
- overall estimated deaths: 4.5 to 4.7 million people (Cost of War project, Brown University)
- direct deaths (approx.): 940,000
- indirect deaths (approx.): 3.6 to 3.8 million (from disease, malnutrition and health complications)
- people displaced: more than 38 million
- Afghanistan invasion date: October 7, 2001 (Operation Enduring Freedom)
Less than a month after the September 11 attacks, the United States invaded Afghanistan on October 7, 2001, beginning what President George W. Bush termed a 'War on Terror.' That campaign expanded into Iraq and into military actions across the Middle East, South Asia and Africa, and has stretched across nearly 25 years. An analysis by Brown University’s Costs of War project estimates the combined death toll from these US-led wars at roughly 4.5 to 4.7 million people and places the number of displaced at over 38 million.
The Costs of War study separates the toll into direct and indirect losses: about 940,000 deaths are attributed to direct violence, while an additional 3.6 to 3.8 million deaths are linked to indirect causes such as disease, malnutrition and other health complications that followed the conflicts. Those indirect effects have amplified human suffering long after major combat operations subsided.
Afghanistan alone accounted for an estimated 176,000 direct war deaths. The US-led intervention, launched as Operation Enduring Freedom, became the longest conflict in US history, continuing across four presidential administrations and lasting nearly two decades. Beyond battlefield fatalities, hundreds of thousands more died from hunger, disease and untreated injuries; food insecurity rose sharply from about 62 percent before the war to roughly 92 percent afterward, and unexploded ordnance and landmines continue to cause civilian casualties. The Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in 2021.
The US invasion of Iraq began on March 19, 2003. The Costs of War project estimates some 315,000 direct deaths in Iraq. Personal accounts from Iraqis who were teenagers when the bombing started describe pervasive fear and the sudden loss of friends and family members, highlighting the conflict’s enduring personal and communal harms. Together, the documented direct and indirect effects underline how the wars have reshaped societies, economies and public health across multiple regions.
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