Export Constraints Curb Kazakhstan’s Ability to Offset the Global Oil Shortage

Global supply concerns have intensified after a series of disruptions — the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, Russian crude facing sanctions and Iran-linked drone strikes disabling Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline — that experts say will push energy prices higher. The Saudi pipeline alone previously supplied up to 4 percent of global oil needs, cited at about 4 million tons per day, mainly to Asian buyers.

Kazakhstan’s capacity to step in is limited by falling output at home. Government figures show production for the first eight months of 2026 was 61.7 million tons, 8.4 percent below the planned target, prompting officials to lower the annual projection to 96 million tons from 100 million. Analysts and state media point to scheduled maintenance that began in September at the large Karachaganak field as a continuing drag on near-term production.

Even where oil is available, getting it to overseas customers is increasingly difficult. Roughly 80 percent of Kazakh crude moves through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium route to Novorossiysk, and the pipeline and terminal facilities there have been hit repeatedly by drone attacks, including a strike on a CPC oil loading facility on September 8. In 2025, CPC transported roughly 65 million tons of Kazakh oil, underscoring how concentrated exports remain.

Officials have pursued alternatives, including boosting shipments across the Caspian to Azerbaijan for onward transit via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, but logistical limits constrain throughput: crude must be moved on tankers across the sea, and BTC can only accommodate a small share. Azerbaijani authorities estimate the BTC could carry about 2.2 million tons of Kazakh oil annually, and talks continue about routing up to 5 million additional tons via the Baku-Supsa line. Long-discussed plans for a dedicated trans-Caspian pipeline could provide more capacity but would require significant time, political cooperation and external financing — resources Kazakhstan does not have on its own, analysts say.

Those constraints matter for major buyers: the European Union received 52.4 million tons of Kazakh crude in 2024, making Kazakhstan its third-largest external supplier. Industry commentators argue that if Europe seeks to reduce dependence on eastbound export corridors, it will need to help make westward projects financially viable through funding and long-term purchase commitments. In the near term, Kazakhstan’s production and export bottlenecks mean it is unlikely to fill gaps created by other regional disruptions.