Hormuz Blockage Puts Qatar's $83 Billion LNG Bet at Risk

QatarEnergy's expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity faces potential delays after the Strait of Hormuz became intermittently unusable for deliveries of critical equipment, CEO and energy minister Saad al-Kaabi said. While the first train of the North Field East project still targets first-half 2027 start-up, further trains depend on a resumption of transit through the Strait and North Field South coming online as planned in 2028.

By AI Newsroom· Reviewed by Pranav, Founder & Editor-in-ChiefPublished about 1 hour agoUpdated about 1 hour ago0 views

Why It Matters

The disruption threatens a major part of a program that would have added 65 million tons per year of capacity by 2030 and required roughly $83 billion of investment, potentially tightening global LNG supplies and adding upward pressure to gas prices already near multi-year highs.

Key Facts

Source: Reuters reporting on remarks by Saad al-Kaabi at a New York forum, cited by OilPrice.com
Immediate operational impact: Iran's March 18 missile strike on Ras Laffan industrial facilities knocked out two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains
Capacity lost from strike: 12.8 million tonnes per year (about 17% of export capacity)
Estimated revenue impact: About $20 billion in annual revenue removed
North Field East timetable: First production train still scheduled for first half of 2027; additional trains contingent on Hormuz traffic resuming

QatarEnergy's chief executive and energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, warned that the company's multi-decade LNG expansion plan could be set back if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Key pieces of equipment for the North Field expansion cannot be delivered while the Strait's traffic is curtailed, he said, leaving the schedule for additional production trains uncertain even though the North Field East project's first train is still planned to start in the first half of 2027.

The March 18 missile attack on Ras Laffan Industrial City damaged two of Qatar's 14 operational LNG trains, representing 12.8 million tonnes per year of capacity. QatarEnergy estimates those damaged trains will remain offline for three to five years, a loss equivalent to roughly 17% of the country's export capacity and an annual revenue shortfall of about $20 billion. Shell's Pearl gas-to-liquids facility, also affected in the strike, is expected to resume operations by the first quarter of 2027.

To partially offset the shortfall, Qatar is relying on the Golden Pass project in Texas, a joint venture with ExxonMobil. That facility is bringing Train 2 online in the second half of 2026 and Train 3 in the first half of 2027; Train 1 shipped its inaugural cargo in April, and the plant will reach its 18 million tonnes per year capacity once all trains are operating. Al-Kaabi told attendees in New York that QatarEnergy intends to become the world's largest LNG trader by a wide margin.

Qatar began 2026 aiming to raise capacity from 77 million tonnes per year to 142 million by 2030, a program that would have supplied roughly 40% of new LNG entering the market and required about $83 billion of combined investment from partners including ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Shell, TotalEnergies and Eni. Al-Kaabi rejected pipeline alternatives to circumvent Hormuz on commercial and technical grounds, saying moving LNG via long pipelines would require redundant liquefaction at the receiving end and therefore made no economic sense. He also noted that limited LNG tanker transits resumed recently, including ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, after months of near-total avoidance of the Strait; analysts cited in the reporting say Asian and European gas prices are at their highest since the 2022-2023 energy crisis.