How October 7 redrew the map of the Middle East
Three years after the October 7 attacks and the resulting Israeli offensive in Gaza, the Middle East's security architecture and economic balance have been drastically altered. Israel has expanded military operations across the region, Iran’s alliance network has been weakened, and Gulf trade routes and energy supplies have been disrupted by proximate actors such as the Houthis and Iranian-linked strikes.
Why It Matters
The changes have eroded confidence in the U.S. security umbrella, prompted new regional security arrangements, and created economic strain for major Gulf exporters — developments with consequences for global energy markets and international diplomacy. These shifts reconfigure which external powers and local actors hold leverage in the region.
Key Facts
- Timeframe: Three years since October 7 attacks
- Palestinian casualties reported: More than 74,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza (as reported)
- Iranian leadership: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in February
- Territorial control: Israel occupies most of Gaza
- Hezbollah and Hamas: Many leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas have been killed since October 7 (reported effect)
The region’s balance of power has been upended since the October 7 attacks and the subsequent Israeli campaign in Gaza. Israeli forces have made territorial gains and occupy most of Gaza, amid reporting that more than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed and much of the enclave has been reduced to rubble. The scale and character of Israel’s military response have strained its relations with traditional partners and made normalisation deals with Arab states unlikely in the near term. Iran’s network of regional allies, which had underpinned its influence, has suffered significant damage, though some proxies remain resilient. Hezbollah’s deterrent reputation eroded under sustained Israeli pressure, and leaders within both Hezbollah and Hamas have been killed. Iran itself suffered a major political shock when its supreme leader was assassinated in February. At the same time, Tehran has projected new forms of leverage by threatening or disrupting key maritime chokepoints. Maritime routes and energy infrastructure have seen repeated attacks and disruption. Drones and missiles struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facilities and caused fires near Dubai airport and Fujairah’s oil zone. The Houthi movement seized the Yemeni port of Mocha and nearby islands, consolidating influence over the Bab al-Mandeb strait and tightening control over a vital route for global trade and energy flows. Those developments have tightened regional economic pressures even as major Western consumers have used strategic reserves and diversified supplies. The perceived reliability of the U.S. as a singular security guarantor has diminished, prompting regional states to seek additional partners and security arrangements. Policymakers in the Gulf and beyond are engaging with other external actors and pursuing mechanisms such as the Mecca security pact — a defense agreement signed in August between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan — as states hedge their security relationships. Observers note the Middle East has become more multi-aligned, with external powers like Türkiye and China playing larger roles in different theatres.
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