HSBC Raises 2026 Brent Forecast to $90 as Hormuz Crisis Drags On

HSBC has lifted its Brent crude forecast for 2026 to $90 a barrel from a prior $80, attributing the revision to tighter market conditions arising from ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. In a note cited by The Wall Street Journal, HSBC analyst Kim Fustier said there is no clear path to de-escalation, and the bank’s base-case envisions a fragile understanding between the United States and Iran that could break down and keep shipping and insurance conditions uncertain.

HSBC projects flows through the Strait of Hormuz will grow to about 8 million bpd by the end of 2026 from roughly 6 million bpd now, and to about 9.5 million bpd by mid-2027. Those estimates are below other analysts’ and current flow-tracking figures that suggest roughly 10 million bpd are moving through the chokepoint today, and far short of pre-war transit levels of about 19–20 million bpd.

Oil prices have already responded: early Thursday Brent was trading near $101 per barrel after topping $100 for the first time since July a day earlier amid an escalation in tanker attacks tied to the U.S.-Iran confrontation. HSBC warned that in a ‘‘stalemate’’ scenario—where diplomacy fails and flows remain constrained—Brent could surge to $120 per barrel, a level similar to a warning issued recently by Goldman Sachs if attacks on Middle East shipping intensify.

Overall, HSBC’s forecast adjustment reflects an expectation that constrained flows through a key oil chokepoint will keep markets tight through much of 2026 and into 2027, postponing a full market rebalancing until about the middle of 2027. The bank’s analysis highlights how continued geopolitical frictions in the region could translate into sustained price pressure and volatility for global oil markets.