IAEA Triples Nuclear Power Forecast as Small Reactors Finally Take Off
The International Atomic Energy Agency raised its long-term outlook for nuclear power, projecting global nuclear generation capacity will triple by 2060. The agency expects a substantial share of that expansion to come from small modular reactors (SMRs), which it now sees accounting for roughly one-quarter of new nuclear capacity under its scenarios.
Why It Matters
If built at scale, SMRs could change how nuclear power is deployed by lowering up-front construction complexity and enabling incremental capacity additions; that potential helps explain growing investment and regulatory moves amid rising demand from large power consumers such as AI data centers. The shift also reflects changing regional priorities, with particular uptake forecast in North America and parts of Asia and Latin America.
Key Facts
- IAEA long-term forecast: Global nuclear power generation capacity projected to triple by 2060
- SMR share (high-growth scenario): 28% of new nuclear capacity added by 2060
- SMR share (low-growth scenario): 23% of new nuclear capacity added by 2060
- IAEA prior SMR projection: Previously estimated 24% (high case) and 5% (low case) share for SMRs
- Regional uptake — North America: About 60% of new nuclear capacity could come from SMRs
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised its long-range forecast for nuclear power, estimating that global nuclear generation capacity will triple by 2060. A substantial portion of that projected growth is expected to come from small modular reactors (SMRs), factory-built units designed to be mass-produced and sited in varying numbers according to need.
SMRs have long been promoted as a way to deliver low-emissions, baseload electricity with lower up-front costs and shorter construction times than conventional large nuclear plants. Development has been slowed by regulatory obstacles, financing shortfalls and fuel-supply issues, and experts note that while SMRs may become cheaper over time they are not yet broadly cost-competitive with some other low-carbon options. David Schlissel of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis told OilPrice.com that early deployments do not yet demonstrate the economic competitiveness proponents claim.
Despite those challenges, the IAEA’s new scenarios boost confidence in SMRs’ future role. In the agency’s high-growth case, SMRs account for 28% of new nuclear capacity to 2060; in the low-growth case they represent 23%. Those shares are up from the agency’s previous outlook, which had a high-case share of 24% and a low-case share of 5%. The report also identifies regional patterns: North America could see about 60% of its new nuclear capacity come from SMRs, while South-Eastern Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean are each projected to see roughly 40% of new capacity supplied by SMRs in both scenarios.
Some deployments are already advancing. Russia and China are the only countries with operational, grid-connected SMRs today, while the United States has approved one SMR design with a targeted commercial deployment around 2028. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission recently approved an early construction pathway for two planned SMRs at the Palisades Energy Center in Michigan, allowing preliminary work before a Limited Work Authorization; together those units are expected to produce about 680 megawatts.
The push toward SMRs is occurring alongside surging electricity demand from large-scale technologies. The IAEA and industry observers note that hyperscale AI data centers can consume vast amounts of power, a trend that has helped drive near-term growth in natural gas-fired generation and is also motivating investments in next-generation low-emissions capacity such as SMRs.
Keep Reading
Iran war live: Tehran sets terms for peace; Saudi forces foil Riyadh attack
DR Congo rolls out Ebola vaccine for health workers as death toll rises
Trump’s MAGA Inc. funnels another $5 million into Texas Senate race
