India's Power Shortages Jump to Three-Year High
India's electricity shortfall widened to 560 million kilowatt-hours in September, the largest monthly deficit since August 2023, as hotter El Niño conditions and rising industrial and residential demand pushed consumption higher. Total generation rose 11.3% year-on-year to 174.17 billion kWh, with both coal-fired and renewable output increasing but clean-power's share of the mix declining.
Why It Matters
A growing supply shortfall amid higher temperatures and demand signals pressure on India's power system and fuel supply chains, with implications for coal consumption, plant inventories and energy planning during a strong El Niño episode.
Key Facts
- September power shortfall: 560 million kWh
- Last time shortfall was this high: August 2023
- Total electricity generation (September): 174.17 billion kWh (up 11.3% year-on-year)
- Coal-fired generation change (year-on-year): Up 13.3%
- Coal share of generation (September): 66.03% (from 64.6% in August)
India's power shortfall surged in September to about 560 million kilowatt-hours, the highest monthly deficit since August 2023, according to Reuters calculations based on daily data from the national grid operator. Total electricity output for the month climbed 11.3% from a year earlier to 174.17 billion kWh as demand rose.
Coal-fired generation increased year-on-year by 13.3%, and coal's share of overall electricity production grew to 66.03% in September from 64.6% in August. Renewable output also rose, up 25.1% compared with the prior year, but the combined share of clean power fell to 17% in September from 19.5% in August.
The shortfall and the shift in the generation mix were driven by stronger residential and industrial electricity use alongside weather effects linked to El Niño, which has brought lower-than-normal rainfall and higher temperatures. Monsoon-related disruptions to coal supply have contributed to strains on fuel inventories.
A rising number of coal-fired plants have dipped below critically low coal inventory thresholds in recent weeks: nearly 40% of operational coal plants were reported to be at or below the 25% critically low level. The International Energy Agency in its Coal Mid-Year Update 2026 projected India's total coal demand will increase 4.2% this year to about 1.353 billion tonnes, reversing a small decline seen the previous year.