Iraq begins high-stakes security balancing act as US troops withdraw

Iraq has begun observing ‘Sovereignty Days’ after the last few hundred US troops serving as advisers in the anti-ISIL coalition departed under a Wednesday deadline. The pullout ends a foreign military presence that followed more than two decades of intervention, with remaining US forces having consolidated at Erbil by late 2025 prior to the final removals. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is presenting the withdrawal as part of a broader plan to restore exclusive state authority over security and to pivot bilateral ties toward economic and development cooperation. At the UN General Assembly he said the government aims for the state to be the ultimate decision-maker on matters of war and peace, and described the coalition’s mission as concluded. A core component of al-Zaidi’s strategy is to disarm and integrate militias into state structures by June 2027, a timeline he extended from an earlier Sept. 30, 2026 target. Some powerful pro-Iran armed groups have said they will refuse to surrender weapons, and analysts warn that militias have long used foreign military presence — including US forces and actors such as Türkiye — as justification for retaining arsenals. Observers and former diplomats say the withdrawal is a high-stakes political gamble: it could weaken Iran-aligned militias politically if Iraqis accept state monopolization of force, but it also risks giving Iran greater influence or provoking a domestic confrontation. Analysts warn militias aligned with Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ remain operational and may continue targeting US interests, and there is concern in Baghdad that severing the US military presence could alter Washington’s approach to Iraq.