Kazakhstan Turns to Russian Gas as Domestic Demand Surges
Kazakhstan has agreed with Gazprom to boost Russian gas deliveries to about 11 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2026, up from roughly 4 bcm in 2025, and the parties are discussing purchases of as much as 9 bcm for 2027. Uzbekistan is also increasing reliance on Russian imports as its domestic production declines, even while continuing to export gas to other markets. A recent US sanctions bill could create tariff and secondary-sanctions risks for buyers of Russian energy, potentially complicating Central Asian import plans.
Why It Matters
The deal shifts Kazakhstan from net-exporter dynamics toward larger reliance on Russian pipeline supplies just as US legislation raises the prospect of punitive tariffs or secondary sanctions for purchasers of Russian energy, creating policy and commercial uncertainty for the region's gas markets. This has implications for revenue flows, energy security and regional trading patterns in Central Asia.
Key Facts
- 2026 Russian gas imports (Kazakhstan): about 11 bcm
- 2025 Russian gas imports (Kazakhstan): about 4 bcm
- 2027 negotiations (Kazakhstan): discussing up to 9 bcm
- Kazakhstan 2025 domestic production: 68.1 bcm (record level)
- Uzbekistan H1 2026 production: 18.3 bcm
Kazakhstan and Russia’s Gazprom have signed a supplementary agreement that will raise Russian gas deliveries to Kazakhstan to roughly 11 billion cubic meters in 2026, according to the Tass news agency. That represents an increase from approximately 4 bcm delivered in 2025. The two sides are continuing talks on purchases of about 9 bcm for 2027.
The price under the Gazprom deal has not been disclosed. Eurasianet reports observers expect the import price may be low, reflecting Russia’s efforts to find markets after losing much of its European business, but cautions that the overall economic cost for Kazakhstan could be influenced by new US sanctions targeting Russian energy buyers.
Uzbekistan is also shifting toward greater import dependence. Domestic gas production in Uzbekistan fell from 21.9 bcm in the first half of 2025 to 18.3 bcm in H1 2026, while the country continued exporting gas — generating roughly $629 million in export revenue in 2025 and importing mainly from Russia at a value of about $1.66 billion that year.
A US sanctions bill passed by Congress on September 16 would give the White House authority to impose tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy and could expose third-party entities to secondary sanctions, the reporting says. The law’s reach and application remain points of uncertainty, but Eurasianet notes the measure could complicate gas import plans in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan just as both countries increase reliance on Russian supplies.
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Original source: OilPrice.com