Live updates: Bitcoin posts tentative gains as rates drop ahead of Friday's jobs report

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as traders pared back expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, pushing the 10-year yield down to about 5.22% and the 2-year to roughly 4.76%. That retreat in rates coincided with a modest rise in bitcoin and a weaker euro after French government bond spreads versus Germany widened sharply, reviving concern about European sovereign debt risk.

By AI Newsroom· Reviewed by Pranav, Founder & Editor-in-ChiefPublished less than a minute agoUpdated less than a minute ago0 views

Live updates: Bitcoin posts tentative gains as rates drop ahead of Friday's jobs report

Why It Matters

The shift in rate expectations affects asset prices across markets — from Treasuries and foreign exchange to cryptocurrencies — while surging French yields and CDS spreads could signal renewed sovereign stress in the euro area, which would have broader implications for European financial stability.

Key Facts

reporting time: coverage ended Oct 1, 2026, 5:00 p.m. EDT
fed commentary: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said markets may have gotten ahead of themselves and that more time is needed before deciding on additional hikes.
probability of Fed move (Oct. 28): fell to about 30% from ~70% earlier in the week
10-year U.S. Treasury yield (Thursday): down about 9.4 basis points to 5.217% (earlier reached 5.36%)
2-year U.S. Treasury yield (Thursday): down about 12.3 basis points to 4.764% (also reported at 4.81%)

U.S. government bond yields pulled back on Thursday as traders scaled back bets on near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes, following comments from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson that more time would be needed before deciding on additional tightening. Market-implied odds of a rate increase at the Oct. 28 meeting fell sharply this week, from roughly 70% to about 30%, and the chance of any further hikes by year-end also eased. The Treasury move coincided with modest gains in bitcoin, which traded around $84,800 in U.S. afternoon action, about 1% higher over the previous 24 hours. The softer short-end yield, with the 2-year near 4.76%, was cited as a factor helping risk assets as traders trimmed positions ahead of Friday’s U.S. September jobs report. Across the Atlantic, stress in French sovereign debt pushed the spread between German and French 10-year yields to around 135 basis points, a level much wider than the 50–80 basis-point range seen in recent years. French 10-year OAT yields rose while German Bund yields fell, and credit-default-swap spreads on French government debt climbed to a 13-year high. The widening spreads sent the euro down about 0.9% on the day to roughly $1.1231, its weakest in about five months. Commodities also reacted to fresh geopolitical and market developments. Oil prices rose after reports that the U.S. was deploying additional military assets to the Middle East; WTI moved up to about $92.63 per barrel and Brent to roughly $101.53. In crypto headlines, the NEAR token fell about 9% after a reported exploit of NEAR Intents that initially cost about $3.8 million; NEAR Intents temporarily suspended services and later said the contract-side vulnerability had been patched and operations were expected to resume within about an hour. Economic data released on Thursday provided mixed signals: initial jobless claims remained low at 197,000, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI stayed in expansion at 54.5 while its Prices Paid subindex rose sharply to 77.9, indicating rising input cost pressures. Markets appeared cautious ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, with economists forecasting around 90,000 jobs added in September and the unemployment rate remaining near 4.1%.