Live updates: Bitcoin trading near $86,000 after big miss on U.S. jobs
A softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report on Friday — with payrolls rising just 29,000 in September and unemployment rising to 4.2% — pushed Treasury yields, the dollar and oil lower and helped lift risk assets. Bitcoin traded around $86,000–$87,000 after briefly topping $87,000, while U.S. equities, led by the Nasdaq 100, rallied to fresh highs.
Why It Matters
The weak labor data reduced near-term odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike and eased the U.S. dollar and yields, a combination that can support risk assets including cryptocurrencies and equities. Markets are parsing how the data changes expectations for Fed policy, inflation readings next week, and flows into spot bitcoin ETFs.
Key Facts
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls (September): 29,000 (consensus ~90,000)
- U.S. unemployment rate (September): 4.2% (expected 4.1%)
- Revisions: August payrolls revised to 133,000 (down from 162,000); July revised from +21,000 to -10,000
- Bitcoin price action: Briefly above $87,000, trading near $85,500 after the release; tested $86,000–$87,000 resistance
- Equities: Nasdaq 100 hit an all-time high near 31,000; S&P 500 up about 1%
U.S. markets moved sharply after the Labor Department reported payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September, well below the roughly 90,000 economists had been forecasting. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month-over-month, missing the 0.3% forecast. The report also included notable downward revisions to prior months: August payrolls were revised to 133,000 from 162,000 and July’s gain was changed to a 10,000 jobs loss.
The softer-than-expected labor data weighed on the dollar and Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield sliding to about 5.17% and the 2-year to roughly 4.71% in initial trading. Oil prices extended declines — WTI fell below $90 a barrel and was down roughly 4% over 24 hours — while gold rose by more than 1% and silver traded above $61 an ounce. Those moves together helped lift risk assets, with U.S. stock futures and major indices moving higher.
Bitcoin responded to the risk-on tilt, briefly climbing above $87,000 during U.S. morning hours before pulling back into the mid-$85,000s. Market strategists cited the weaker jobs print as a potential catalyst: LMAX Group’s Joel Kruger said the data strengthens the case for unwinding crowded dollar-long positions, which can push yields lower and support risk assets including bitcoin. 21Shares’ Matt Mena noted bitcoin had broken through $85,000–$86,000 resistance and that $90,000 and then $97,000 could be the next reference levels if the rally continues.
The jobs report also shifted expectations for Federal Reserve policy. CME FedWatch probabilities for an Oct. 28 rate hike fell sharply in the wake of the data, dropping to about 13% from roughly 70% earlier in the week. Traders also raised the odds that the Fed could pause for an extended period; the chance of no hikes through the rest of 2026 rose to about 25% after the report. Markets will still be watching upcoming September inflation readings for additional policy clues.
Across Europe, a widening gap between French and German 10-year yields drew attention: the spread has expanded to about 152 basis points, well above its typical 50–80 basis point range and approaching levels seen during the 2011 debt crisis. That dynamic is occurring while the ECB confronts persistent inflation, a different backdrop than in 2011 when inflation was low.
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