Live updates: Bitcoin under pressure as rates continue to rise

Bitcoin traded around $85,500 on Monday, retreating from a near-$87,000 intraday touch over the weekend as U.S. Treasury yields resumed an upward move. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to roughly 5.33%–5.34%, about 16 basis points higher than its low after Friday’s weak U.S. employment report, while the 2-year yield returned to 4.84% from a prior low near 4.71%. Market participants have been reassessing the odds of a Fed rate increase in October: the probability moved back up to about 24% after having fallen to roughly 15% on Friday following the jobs miss. September payrolls came in at +29,000 versus forecasts near 90,000, with the three-month average at about 51,000 — figures the market viewed as insufficient on their own to derail the Fed’s tightening path given lingering inflation concerns. Equities showed relative strength despite the bond-market repricing. With under an hour to go in the Monday session, the Nasdaq was trading about 1.15% higher and the S&P 500 up roughly 0.8%, while the financials sector (XLF) also advanced. Separately, SpaceX shares were up about 5.5% on the day and have gained roughly 60% from their August low of $105 to near $172. Across the Atlantic, stress in European sovereign markets focused attention on France: the spread between France’s 10-year OATs and Germany’s 10-year bunds widened to around 160 basis points at one point last week before narrowing to about 140 basis points on Monday. Banque de France governor Emmanuel Moulin urged fiscal consolidation to reassure markets, saying that passing a budget to reduce spending and narrow the deficit would help calm investors. Analysts quoted in the coverage suggested the ECB may still need to moderate its rate path if euro-area tensions persist. Inflation dynamics stayed relevant to the policy outlook: the ISM Services PMI slipped to 54.9 in September from 55.4 in August, with the Prices Paid subindex rising to 74, signaling continued price pressure. On the crypto side, institutional accumulation continued in ether as Bitmine added 15,112 ether in its latest purchase. Tags":["macro-markets","fixed-income","bitcoin","cryptocurrency","european-debt","federal-reserve"],"significance":0.6}