Middle East Oil Exports Rebound to 12.8 Million Bpd

Preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters indicates Middle East crude exports rose to about 12.8 million barrels per day this month, led by higher Saudi shipments. Saudi Arabia's exports are estimated at roughly 5.4 million bpd, with Ras Tanura flows near 3.6 million bpd, as producers redirect cargoes eastward and use ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

By AI Newsroom· Reviewed by Pranav, Founder & Editor-in-ChiefPublished 1 minute agoUpdated 1 minute ago0 views

Why It Matters

The rebound shows regional producers adjusting trade routes amid infrastructure outages and security concerns, affecting global seaborne flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Shifts in routing and tanker behaviour have implications for shipping risk, market access and the pace of oil flows compared with pre-war levels.

Key Facts

Current Middle East exports (preliminary): 12.8 million barrels per day
Saudi Arabia exports (this month, Kpler): 5.4 million barrels per day
Ras Tanura port flow rate: 3.6 million barrels per day
Other Gulf producers recent total (reported last Wednesday): 13.2 million barrels per day
Average daily flow before the war: Around 17 million barrels per day

Preliminary vessel-tracking data compiled by Kpler and cited by Reuters shows crude exports from the Middle East have increased to about 12.8 million barrels per day this month. The uptick has been driven in large part by Saudi Arabia, which has shifted volumes away from western routes and toward eastern loadings that employ ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

Kpler estimated Saudi exports at roughly 5.4 million bpd this month, with shipments from the Ras Tanura terminal on the Persian Gulf moving at about 3.6 million bpd — comparable to the country's 2025 daily average in Kpler's data. Kpler's director of commodity research, Matt Smith, attributed the regional ramp-up partly to a pipeline outage and said it may also reflect growing willingness to use the Strait of Hormuz as vessel traffic increases.

Despite the recent rise, Kpler's figures remain below the pre-war seaborne flow, which averaged near 17 million bpd. The dataset also showed a daily total of 13.2 million bpd for other Gulf producers on a recent Wednesday, indicating a broader regional increase but not a full recovery to earlier levels.

Tanker trackers continue to report subdued official traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with counts falling below 10 last week compared with a 10-day moving average of 18. Some ships have been operating in so-called dark mode to limit detection. Separately, Iranian media reported explosions in the Hormuz area and Al Jazeera cited accounts suggesting missiles were fired at vessels; some analysts flagged the possibility of more frequent strikes after the U.S. rejected Iran's peace proposal, according to the source.