Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite tensions, data shows
Ship-tracking firm Kpler reported that crude exports from the Middle East exceeded pre-war averages on four of seven days in late September, reaching 19.5–22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on those dates. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi countered that only 3–4 million bpd are currently transiting the US-supervised route through the Strait of Hormuz, calling that volume "negligible," and said US naval vessels were absent and vulnerable in regional waters.
Why It Matters
Flows of oil through strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz influence global energy markets and geopolitical calculations; diverging data and claims from tracking firms and Iranian officials create uncertainty about actual volumes and security conditions. Accurate measurement and reliable maritime security are central to assessing economic and strategic impacts amid the Iran–US conflict.
Key Facts
- Kpler provisional data: Crude exports topped pre-war levels on Sept. 24 and Sept. 27–29, at 19.5–22.5 million bpd.
- Pre-war export average: 18 million bpd (March 2025–February 2026).
- Seven-day overall tally to Sept. 30: 22.4 million bpd for crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids.
- Seven-day moving average on Oct. 1: 18.5 million bpd (including transits via Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, terminals and ship-to-ship transfers).
- IRGC claim on Hormuz flows: Ali Fadavi said 3–4 million bpd now move through the US-supervised route and called that "negligible."
Provisional ship-tracking data from Kpler shows crude oil exports from the Middle East rose above pre-war levels on four of seven days in the final week of September, with shipments on those days measured at between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. Kpler's broader seven-day tally to Sept. 30, which includes crude, refined products, chemicals and non-gas liquids, averaged 22.4 million bpd. On Oct. 1 the seven-day moving average for crude alone stood at 18.5 million bpd, a figure that covers Strait of Hormuz transits, Red Sea movements, port exports and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
Those tracking figures contrast with public statements by senior IRGC commander Ali Fadavi. In a televised interview, Fadavi said only three to four million barrels per day now pass via the route under US supervision in the Hormuz area, describing that flow as "negligible" relative to pre-conflict traffic. He also asserted that US naval vessels were absent from the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman and portions of the northern Indian Ocean and said, without providing independent corroboration in the cited excerpt, that US warships were fully exposed to IRGC attack.
The uptick measured by Kpler coincided with Iranian claims of successful strikes on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran said had prompted Washington to shift its warships farther offshore. Kpler noted that its figures do not account for vessels that may have transited with automatic identification system transponders switched off. Separately, liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to the highest monthly level since February.
Maritime security agencies have reported ongoing incidents in the region. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency recorded at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden since Oct. 2, according to the source. Meanwhile, Iranian officials including parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepts Tehran's seven-day plan to reopen the waterway.
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