Oil Price Forecasts Jump as Hormuz Disruption Drags On

Analysts responding to Reuters' September survey raised their 2026 oil price projections as prospects dimmed for a rapid normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The poll of 30 economists and analysts put the average Brent price for 2026 at $89.05 per barrel, up from $85.08 in August, and lifted the average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast to $83.90 from $80.20. Several contributors to the poll said they now expect Hormuz-related disruptions to endure rather than be resolved quickly. HSBC is modeling only gradual improvements in shipping and describes the Strait as "structurally impaired," with flows staying well below the roughly 19–20 million barrels per day that passed through the waterway before the war. DBS Bank said it does not assume the conflict will be settled within the next three to six months. Despite disruption risks, Gulf producers have restored a substantial share of exports. Goldman Sachs estimated total Gulf exports — including shipments by vessels operating with transponders switched off (so-called dark exports) — reached about 23.3 million bpd over the past week, roughly matching the 2025 average after a September doubling in visible shipments. Analysts flagged that estimates covering total Gulf shipments differ from visible tanker traffic through Hormuz. Demand and inventories remain key swing factors. China’s crude imports recovered from a June decade low to nearly 9 million bpd in August, but remain below last year’s average; some forecasters expect imports to strengthen as wartime draws on inventories reverse, while others (FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects) trimmed Q4 import forecasts by about 400,000 bpd to roughly 9.2–9.3 million bpd after Brent climbed above $100 and freight costs rose. Sources told Reuters that OPEC+ is unlikely to add immediate supply and is expected to keep current production targets unchanged when eight members meet on Sunday. Most analysts in the poll do not expect the market to move back into surplus until 2027, when improved Gulf shipping, recovering regional production and growth in non-OPEC supply could restore more barrels to the market.