Oil Prices Are Once Again on the Brink of $100

Global oil prices pushed back toward the triple-digit mark as a string of Middle East incidents heightened supply anxieties. Market participants pointed to renewed Houthi strikes on Saudi energy facilities and U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers as central drivers of the move above $99 per barrel, the strongest reading in three months. Additional regional friction — including flaring Israeli-Lebanese tensions — contributed to a fragile risk backdrop for crude markets.

Supply-side responses remain constrained. OPEC+ elected to keep October 2026 production quotas unchanged after completing the rollback of a 1.65 million b/d voluntary cut in September, and the group is focusing on reviewing 2027 output baselines. Iran has also signalled intentions to establish a wider Gulf maritime exclusion zone, while Houthi attacks forced shutdowns at several Saudi energy sites, including strikes on the 400,000 b/d Jazan refinery that wounded 73 people. Separately, reports said Saudi Aramco delayed some September cargoes to European buyers even as nominations rose to 1.3 million b/d.

European gas markets have tightened sharply, with day-ahead prices jumping to €75 per MWh — the highest level since 2022 — amid concern about thin winter stocks. The EU’s storage stands at about 66% full overall, and market watchers singled out Germany and the Netherlands as particularly exposed with stocks at 54% and 48% respectively. LNG flows have not fully offset the shortfall: since the early-April arrival of the Al Nuaman at Rovigo, the bloc had not received Qatari LNG until a recent Al Marrouna cargo, and delivered LNG prices into northwest Europe and Asia’s JKM have risen, with JKM around $24.5 per MMBtu this week. Lower buying amid higher prices has curbed imports, with September LNG volumes forecast to match August’s 7.5 million tonnes, down about 13% year-on-year.

Corporate and regional developments added to the market picture. TotalEnergies moved the 6 mtpa Papua LNG project toward an FID and transferred operatorship to ExxonMobil, while Shell is reported to be weighing a sale of part or all of its 72% stake in the Bintulu GTL plant. In Canada, Tamarack Valley Energy agreed to merge with Headwater Exploration in a $7.2 billion all-stock deal. Other notable items in recent trading: BP named Ian Tyler permanent chair; ENI took a 25-year operatorship deal for Venezuela’s Junin-5; Nigeria’s Dangote outlined a $14.3 billion plan to expand refinery capacity to 1.4 million b/d by 2029; and China’s August crude imports rose to 8.93 million b/d, up 6.2% month-on-month.