OPEC+ Holds November Quota at 31.01 Million Barrels Daily

OPEC+ decided to leave its November production quota unchanged at 31.01 million barrels per day — the same level set for October — after earlier easing formal cuts intended to mitigate a Middle East supply shortfall. Despite the unchanged quota, actual output has remained well below the target, with August production at about 25 million barrels per day for the members covered by the quota.

By AI Newsroom· Reviewed by Pranav, Founder & Editor-in-ChiefPublished 1 minute agoUpdated 1 minute ago0 views

Why It Matters

The gap between OPEC+ quotas and actual output contributes to tightness in the global oil market even as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovers, a dynamic that affects global supply balances and price formation. Market commentary from UBS and shipping-flow data cited in reporting highlight that physical flows and nominal quotas are not currently aligned.

Key Facts

November quota (and October): 31.01 million barrels per day (for the eight OPEC+ members covered by the quota)
Actual production in August: About 25.0 million barrels per day
Strait of Hormuz / regional flow (seven-day moving average): 18.5 million barrels per day for the Middle East in the week to Oct. 1 (Kpler data cited by Reuters)
Analyst quoted: Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS
Original reporting: By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com, citing Reuters and Kpler data

OPEC+ announced it will maintain the oil production ceiling for November at the same level set for October: 31.01 million barrels per day for the eight members covered by the quota. The decision was expected by markets and follows earlier steps during the year when the group formally unwound parts of its production cuts to address supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving the U.S. and Israel with Iran.

Despite the unchanged quota, actual output has lagged the target. Data cited in reporting show that in August the group produced roughly 25 million barrels per day, a material shortfall versus the stated quota. UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo, quoted via Reuters, noted that even though flows through the Strait of Hormuz have reportedly risen, aggregate OPEC+ output remains under quota and the market therefore stays tight.

Analysts and data providers have pointed to several factors that could explain the mismatch between shipping flows and production totals. Kpler data referenced in the reporting indicated a seven-day moving average of about 18.5 million barrels per day for Middle East exports in the week to Oct. 1, covering Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and Bab El-Mandeb. Possible explanations for the quota–production gap include releases from inventories or an increased share of crude being routed directly to export rather than to domestic storage, though the source material does not quantify those flows.

The decision to keep the quota unchanged underlines that the formal policy stance of OPEC+ remains stable for now, even as real-world output and shipping recoveries evolve. Market participants and analysts are watching whether production will rise toward quota levels in coming months or whether physical constraints and strategic choices will sustain the current divergence between quotas and actual deliveries.

(Reporting based on an Oilprice.com item by Irina Slav, which cited Reuters and Kpler data.)