Polls open in Latvia against backdrop of perceived Russia threat

Latvia held parliamentary voting on Saturday with polls opening at 05:00 GMT and closing at 17:00 GMT, in a contest framed by fears of Russian aggression and widespread economic strain at home. The election is the first nationwide test for Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, who took office in May after his predecessor stepped down following public backlash over stray drones from Ukraine. Observers do not expect the ballot to shift Latvia’s broadly pro-European, pro-Ukraine policy direction.

Around 1.5 million people are eligible to vote in the country’s 11th parliamentary election since regaining independence in 1991. Political life in Latvia is fragmented: parties rarely win more than about 20% of the vote and governing coalitions are the norm. Fourteen electoral lists are competing this year, though polls suggest only seven will pass the 5% threshold required to take seats in parliament.

Kulbergs’s right-wing United List is polling at roughly 20%, making him the frontrunner to continue as prime minister, but the decline of two partners from his outgoing coalition means forming a new government could be complicated. Populist and nationalist formations have gained traction in campaign polls: Sovereign Power, which argues war-support funds for Ukraine should be spent domestically, is polling at just over 9% and could become the country’s second-largest party, though many other parties have ruled out entering coalition talks with it. Latvia First, a pro-Ukraine populist nationalist party, is also polling near 9% and has been discussed as a possible partner for Kulbergs.

Domestic issues featured heavily on the campaign trail. Rising living costs, low wages, pressure on healthcare services and long-term population decline have been prominent voter concerns. Latvia remains the poorest of the three Baltic states but has sharply raised defence spending since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now dedicating nearly 5% of GDP to its military budget. Ethnic Russians comprise about one-quarter of Latvian citizens; while their vote has often followed identity lines in the past, polling indicates economic and social issues may be more influential this election cycle.