Saudi Oil Crisis Is About to Hit Europe

A September 10 assault on Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline damaged multiple points along the line and at least one pumping station, leading Saudi authorities to stop flows on the Petroline — the 1,200-kilometer pipeline that routes eastern crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and serves as a key alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Before the strikes, industry tracker Kpler estimated the pipeline was carrying roughly 4 million barrels per day; its full capacity is about 7 million bpd. With the line offline, Riyadh faces an immediate logistics challenge to feed Red Sea export loadings.

Storage at Yanbu has already thinned sharply. Kpler put inventories below 15 million barrels, down from nearly 21 million in July and close to the lowest levels seen since 2018. At an export pace of about 3.5 million bpd, that stockpile would cover only around four days of theoretical supply. Aramco can tap into its wider global storage network, but sustaining shipments from the Red Sea ultimately requires fresh crude deliveries to Yanbu.

The conflict’s geographic spread adds another layer of risk. Saudi officials say the drones that struck the Petroline came from Iraq, a development that could trigger retaliation against Iran-aligned militias. Simultaneously, Houthi gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast — including the capture of Mokha and reported buildups near Marib — have raised concerns that fighting could encroach on energy infrastructure and maritime chokepoints such as Bab el-Mandeb. Analysts warn that attacks already targeting pipelines, pumping stations, ports and tankers could escalate toward large processing hubs like Abqaiq or to producing fields, producing a far larger global supply shock.

For Europe the impact is already measurable. Saudi Aramco has told European buyers that some September-loading cargoes will be cancelled or postponed and that Yanbu loadings are suspended. Reporting cited by Euronews indicates at least three European refiners saw late-September shipments cancelled or delayed, in some instances until November. European refiners can replace lost Saudi barrels with supplies from the North Sea, the U.S. Gulf Coast, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Guyana, Brazil and West Africa, but those sources face competition from Asian buyers and entail higher crude differentials and longer freight routes. Libya briefly added to strain when production at Hamada, Tahara and NC5 halted after a pipeline closure, though output has since resumed. Wholesale diesel and gasoline prices typically react quickly to tighter crude and refined-product markets, meaning consumers could begin seeing higher pump prices within one to two weeks, with the fuller effect visible by late September and October as refiners reroute supplies.