Standard Chartered predicts Arbitrum's ARB to rise 70-fold to $10, citing Robinhood Chain revenue

Standard Chartered has begun covering Arbitrum's ARB token and set a long-term target of $10 by the end of 2030, a roughly 70-fold increase from its current price near $0.14. The bank's thesis hinges on growing revenue from entities that use Arbitrum to launch their own chains, pointing to Robinhood Chain as a demonstrative example of that business model. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research, said Robinhood's launch has materially lifted Arbitrum's income profile.

Standard Chartered estimates Robinhood Chain has pushed Arbitrum's September revenue toward a roughly $5 million monthly run rate, up more than fivefold from before Robinhood launched in July. Specific figures cited include about $3.75 million in user fees as of Sept. 1 and roughly $370,000 being sent to Arbitrum over a 24-hour period. In July, Robinhood Chain paid around $360,000 in licensing fees, which represented about 35% of Arbitrum DAO income that month.

The report also notes the current allocation of Robinhood Chain protocol revenue into the Arbitrum ecosystem, which CoinDesk previously reported as 10% of net protocol revenue: 8% to the DAO treasury and 2% to a developer fund. Crucially, none of that revenue is presently distributed directly to ARB token holders, a limitation that Standard Chartered flags as a principal risk to its price outlook. The bank additionally highlights potential headwinds including slower-than-expected tokenization of traditional assets and competition from other blockchains.

Kendrick's broader forecast assumes significant tokenization of traditional finance, estimating $4 trillion of assets could be tokenized by the end of 2028 and that Arbitrum could capture a growing share of the supporting infrastructure. Shorter-term technical and market factors noted in the note include a 90-day gas-fee subsidy for Robinhood Wallet users that is due to expire around the end of September, and a scheduled unlock of about 92.6 million ARB on Sept. 16. Market reaction to the coverage has been positive in the near term: ARB rose almost 7% over the prior 24 hours amid a broader market dip, according to the report.